Direct decision rule
Negotiate territory and growth commitments from measured sell-through, service performance and cash economics; never treat the first shipment as proof of repeatable demand.
Use this stage when
- A pilot or first order has produced enough data for a commercial review.
- The brand requests forecasts, exclusivity, targets or a larger reorder.
- Margin, returns, support or channel conflict may require revised terms.
Evidence to collect
- Sell-in and sell-through by SKU, channel, cohort and period.
- Net margin after discounts, marketing, returns, service and financing.
- Stock cover, aging, forecast accuracy, fill rate and lead-time performance.
- Brand support delivery, channel compliance and unresolved risk register.
Decision checklist
- Compare the result with the thresholds agreed before the pilot.
- Separate fixable execution issues from weak product-market fit.
- Tie exclusivity, targets and support to measurable reciprocal duties.
- Document a scale, revise, pause or stop decision with an owner and date.
Risks and exceptions
Requirements vary by product, destination market, Incoterm and the legal structure of the transaction. Public information is a screening input, not a substitute for current legal, customs, tax, compliance or laboratory advice for the exact product and market.
